The Average Innings Pitched (AIP) Rule

 

Dumping Statis Pro Baseballs SR, RR, and POE Pitcher Ratings

When Avalon Hill (AH) bought the rights to Statis Pro baseball from Jim Baines, and first published it as 2nd Edition, they used the original Starting Rating (SR) and Relief Ratting (RR) formulas as a way to determine when a pitcher gets fatigued and should be removed from the game. In later versions of the 2nd Edition rules offered an advanced formula known as the 'Points Of Effectiveness' (POE) rules which used a different formula to determine when a pitcher became fatigued during the game. 


The first system, SR and RR ratings was easy enough, but often a pitcher could get blown out in a single inning or two which was not exactly realistic, and over time I felt led to poor results. The POE system has merit, but is clunky and gets bogged down in minutiae real quick when you have to factor in points for consecutive hits and other factors.


To be honest it was easier to use the SR and RR ratings, and I did for many years. When I was developing my own variation or offshoot of Statis Pro known as Pro-Stat Baseball d8, I began to tinker around with another way to rate pitchers for the game. What I finally settled on was an easy to figure rating based on the average innings a pitcher pitched during the season.

The average innings pitched (AIP) rating reflects just exactly how many games a pitcher pitched during the season. By taking the innings pitched (IP) and dividing them by the actual games played (G), you get the average innings pitched (IP/G = AIP).

Why the AIP Rule?

There are two reasons why the AIP rating system was created for Pro-Stat d8 baseball to replace the SR/RR rating and/or points of effectiveness (POE) rating in Statis Pro Baseball 2nd and 3rd Editions. The first and primary reason was both rating systems used in Statis Pro just did not reflect the actual ability or effectiveness of the pitcher. By using the average innings pitched (AIP) rating, a pitcher has the ability to pitch the actual number of innings he did during the season. In addition, the AIP rule allows a pitcher to pitch beyond his average or be knocked out of the game at any time due to a poor performance.


The second reason is that it allows all pitchers to start a game or come in as a reliever regardless of whether they are classified as a starter or reliever. As the manager, you decide whether a pitcher can start the game or not. There is no logical reason why a reliever could not start a game, it may not be the most prudent decision, but there is no physical reason he could not. The reality of a baseball season is that pitchers sometimes switch roles; starters become relievers, and relievers can assume a starting role. This was especially true in seasons prior to the 1980’s, and as pitchers age, they may find themselves in more of a relief role than a starting role. 


The only real limiting factor of whether a reliever would make a good starting pitcher is his AIP. On average, relief pitchers have lower AIP ratings due to the fact that they pitched less actual innings during the season. The ability of a pitcher to throw the ball does not change because he is designated as a starter or reliever. However, in the Statis Pro baseball 2nd and 3rd Edition only pitchers designated as starters can start a game. A pitcher designated as a reliever is not allowed to do so, but a starting pitcher can enter the game in a relief role. Using the AIP rule, any pitcher on a team's roster can start a game or come in as a reliever giving you total control as the manager. So let’s look at how the AIP rule works….

Average Innings Pitched (AIP) Rule

A pitcher regardless of whether he was a starting or relief pitcher has an AIP rating based on the average innings pitched (AIP) during the season. Unless the manager wishes to remove a starting or relief pitcher during the game, a pitcher will always be able to pitch at a minimum one inning less than his AIP number With the following exceptions:

  1. If a pitcher gives up five runs in an inning roll 1d6, if the result is a 1, 2 or 3, he convinces the manager to let him continue to pitch. If the result is a 4, 5, or 6, the pitcher is removed from the game due to fatigue.

  2. If a pitcher gives up six runs in an inning, roll 1d6, if the result is a 1 or 2, he convinces the manager to let him continue to pitch. If the result is a 3 - 6, the pitcher is removed from the game due to fatigue.

  3. If a pitcher gives up seven or more runs in an inning, roll 1d6, if the result is a 1, he convinces the manager to let him continue to pitch. If the result is a 2 - 6, the pitcher is removed from the game due to fatigue.

  4. The pitcher is injured or ejected as a result of an unusual (Z-Play).


When a pitcher is to head to the mound to pitch the last inning of his AIP, the manager makes a 1d6 fatigue die roll, on a result of 1 - 4, the pitcher can continue to pitch, a 5 or 6 and he is benched due to fatigue.


Example: Jimmie Newberry (PB: 2 - 7, AIP: 4) pitcher for the Birmingham Black Barons has pitched through three innings (his minimum). As he gets ready to head to the mound to pitch the 4th inning, the offensive manager must roll 1d6 to determine if Newberry can pitch the inning. If the result of the 1d6 is 1 - 4, then Newberry takes the mound. If the result is a 5 or 6, then Newberry is benched due to fatigue and another pitcher must take the mound.


These variables represent the reality that each game a pitcher starts or enters the game as a reliever he may not be able to pitch his average number of innings. He may simply come up short and pitch one less inning than his average due to fatigue, or he could be knocked out of the game due to a poor performance.


Pitching Past the AIP

The AIP rating of the pitcher does not limit him to that exact number of innings pitched. He may continue to pitch additional innings without a reduction in his PB or any of his other statistics if he makes a successful 1d6 fatigue die roll. However, the more innings he attempts to pitch past his AIP the more fatigued he becomes and the more difficult it is to make a successful fatigue die roll.


Once a pitcher has pitched his AIP, then each additional inning he attempts to pitch past his AIP he must make a successful 1d6 fatigue die roll with increasing difficulty


One Inning Past AIP: If the result is 1 - 3 (50% chance), the pitcher can take the mound.

Two Innings Past AIP: If the result is 1 - 2 (33% chance), the pitcher can take the mound.

Three or more Innings Past AIP: If the result is 1 (16% chance) the pitcher can take the mound.


If the result of the 1d6 fatigue die roll is greater than the range indicated, then the pitcher is benched by the manager due to fatigue. Let’s continue with our previous example.


Example: Jimmie Newberry (PB: 2 - 7, AIP: 4) successfully made his 1d6 die fatigue roll and pitched through the 4th inning. In the 5th inning, the offensive manager must roll 1d6 to see if Newberry still has enough gas in the tank to pitch another inning. Since Newberry is attempting to pitch one inning past his AIP, if the result of the 1d6 is 1 - 3, then Newberry is able to take the mound in the 5th. If the result is a 4 - 6, then Newberry is benched due to fatigue and another pitcher must take the mound.


If Newberry made a successful fatigue roll and pitched the 5th inning, then in the 6th inning the offensive manager would have to make another 1d6 fatigue die roll to see if Newberry still has enough gas in the tank to pitch another inning. This time the 1d6 die roll is even more difficult, and Newberyy can only take the mound in the 6th if the result of the die roll is 1 or 2. If the result is a 3 - 6, then Newberry is benched due to fatigue and another pitcher must take the mound.


In our example, each inning after the 6th, Newberry would have to roll a ‘1’ on his fatigue die roll to continue to pitch the next inning (a 16% chance). This means that in theory, Newberry could pitch a complete game, although it is very unlikely that a pitcher with an AIP: 4 would be able to do so.

Rating Pitchers

Look, this is not rocket science, rating pitchers for the AIP is extremely simple. You take the number of innings a pitcher pitched during the season and divide it by the actual number of games pitched (IP/G = AIP). Round up or down depending on the result. If a pitcher has an AIP of ‘4.5’ or less, then round down to ‘4’, if the result of the AIP is ‘4.6’ or greater then round up ‘5’. No pitcher can have an AIP less than ‘1’, so if you have a pitcher that normally assumes a closing role and his AIP is less than ‘1’, it becomes ‘1’. So let’s look at some random examples of pitchers taken from the Baseball Reference website:


Starters

Brown, Mordecai ‘Three Finger’ (1909 Chicago Cubs) IP: 342, G:50 (342/50 = 6.84) = AIP: 7

Clemens, Roger (1998, Boston Red Sox) IP: 234, G:33 (234/33 = 7.09) = AIP: 7

Dean, Dizzy (1935 St. Louis Cardinals) IP: 325, G: 50 (325/50 = 6.5) = AIP: 6

Hunter, Catfish (1973 Oakland Athletics) IP: 256, G:36 (256/36 = 7.1) AIP: 7

Koufax, Sandy (1963 Brooklyn Dodgers) IP: 311, G: 40 (311/40 = 7.75) = AIP: 8

Lewis, Ted (1898 Boston Beaneaters) IP: 313, G 41 (313/41 = 7.63) = AIP: 8

Paige, Satchel (1928 Birmingham Black Barons) IP: 132, G: 25 (132/25 = 5.28) = AIP: 5

Rogan, ‘Bullet’ Joe (1923 Kansas City Monarchs) IP: 248, G: 34 (248/34 = 7.29) = AIP: 7

Ryan, Nolan (1991 Texas Rangers) IP: 173, G: 27 (173/27 = 6.4) = AIP 6


Relievers

Benoit, Jaquin (2005 Texas Rangers) IP: 87, G: 32 (87/32 = 2.71) = AIP: 3

Brown, Jumbo (1935 New York Yankees) IP: 87, G: 20 (87/20 = 4.35) = AIP: 4

Carter, Spoon (1935 Pittsburgh Crawfords) IP: 55, G:11 (55/11 = 5.5) = AIP 6

Hubert, Willie (1944 Homestead Grays) IP: 24, G: 5 (24/5 = 4.8) = AIP: 5

Kincannon, Harry (1935 Pittsburgh Crawfords) IP: 33. G: 9 (33/9 = 3.66) AIP; 4

Miller, Eddie (1927 Chicago American Giants) IP: 72, G: 13 (72/13 = 5.53) = AIP: 6

Norman, Fred (1970 St. Louis Cardinals) IP: 62, G: 30 (62/30 = 2.06) = AIP: 2

Pascual, Camilo (1955 Washington Senators) IP: 129, G: 43 (129/43 = 3) = AIP: 3


Closers

Hoffman, Trevor (2005 San Diego Padres) IP: 57, G: 60) (57/60 = .95) = AIP:1

Nathan, Joe (2006 Minnesota Twins) IP: 68, G: 64 (68/64 = 1.06) = AIP: 1

Smith, Lee (1991 St. Louis Cardinals) IP: 73, G: 67 (73/76 = .98) = AIP: 1

Riviera, Mariano (2010 New York Yankees) IP: 60, G: 61 (60/61 = .98) = AIP: 1

Romo, Sergia (2020 Minnesota Twins) IP: 20, G: 24 (20/24 = .83) = AIP: 1


You may notice that over the last twenty years, the role of reliever and closer has become highly specialized and many pitchers designated as relievers come into the game and pitch on average one inning. Regardless, the AIP rating system still works in these situations. Any pitcher AIP: 1 automatically pitches one inning, he may of course be knocked out in the inning related to poor performance. If the manager wishes an AIP: 1 rated pitcher to continue to pitch in the next inning, a fatigue die roll must be made following the guidelines as indicated in the ‘Pitching Past the AIP’ section.

In Conclusion

So there you have it, my simple house rules created back in my college days, that became a part of my Pro-Stat Baseball d8 ruleset. So why am I posting this rule as an optional rule for Statis Pro? To be honest, because I have tried running my Negro League Championship Series, using the Statis Pro Baseball SR/RR ratings and I came to realize why I disliked them so much. As for the POE, I am not going to try and work out the points system, I just don't think it is a realistic monitoring tool when it comes to pitcher fatigue and effectiveness.


I wanted to share this rule for those players who are looking for a realistic fatigue rating system for pitchers based on actual game play. In my opinion, the AIP rule best reflects the actual pitching performance of the pitcher as related to his ability to stay in the game. I admit however, I am biased as is any rules writer, but regardless, I hope you will try them and find them an enjoyable alternative to the SR / RR, and POE rules provided in the original AH ruleset. Now get out there and "PLAY BALL!"


Todd


Download a Printable set of just the AIP rules by clicking the link below.


The Average Innings Pitched (AIP)Rule

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