Dissecting the FAC
When Statis Pro baseball was first published, it was unique in that it used a deck of 98 cards known as ‘Fast Action Cards (FAC)’ rather than using dice. Each card was further divided into four sections (2 on the front and 2 on the back) for a total of 392 individual cards (minus three blanks for 389 possible results). Each FAC contained all the information you needed to play the game, and the system worked really well. The concept was relatively simple, you flip a card, look at the appropriate label or description and get the play result. Now, keep in mind that in most instances, you had to flip several cards to get the complete result of the play, but the system was generally quick and easy to learn.
In my opinion, there are drawbacks or disadvantages to this system. First, fast action cards get lost, just ask anyone who owns one of these classic games, it happens. Second, the cards need to be shuffled, rather often during a game, and because they are simple card stock, they tear, and get worn out over time. In order to convert the game from the FAC deck used by Statis Pro baseball to a dice version, we need to break down or ‘dissect’ the FAC deck to see what we are working with.
Going through a complete and original Statis Pro FAC deck, you will find the following:
Total number of cards in a FAC deck: 98 (subdivided into 389 individual sections or cards)
Total number of out results: 1,558
Total number of outs with asterisks: 844 (844/1558 = 54.1%)
Total number of ground out results: 804
Total number of fly outs (Line drive, Infield, and Outfield) results: 754
Specialty Play Card Numbers: (3%)
Pitch: Yes Results (47%), No results (53%)
Ground out percentage: 804/1558 = 51.6%, rounded to 52%
Fly out percentage: 754/1558 = 48.3%, rounded to 48%
Error Numbers:
Total number of outs with asterisks: 844 (Indicates possible error), (844/1558 = 54.1%)
Total number of ground outs with asterisks: 764 (764/844 = 90.5%)
Total number of fly outs (Line drive, Infield, and Outfield) with asterisks: 80 (80/844 = 9.4%)
Error Result: None (336/389 = 86.4%). Error Result with # (53/389 = 13.6%)
Ground Outs Per Position
G1 (7%), G1A (3%), GX1 (6%): Total 16%
G2 (1%), G2A (1%), GX2 (1%): Total 3%
G3 (9%), G3A (3%), GX3 (2%): Total 14%
G4 (9%), G4A (7%), GX4 (5%): Total 21%
G5 (12%), G5A (2%), GX5 (1%): Total 15%
G6 (16%), G6A (7%), GX6 (8%): Total 31%
Fly Outs Per Type and Position
L1 (5%), L3 (3%), L4 (3%), L5 (7%), L6 (3%): Total 21%
F1 (1%), F2 (10%), F3 (6%), F4 (5%), F5 (8%), F6 (6%): Total 36%
F7 (7%), F8 (7%), F9 (10%): Total 24%
FD7 (7%), FD8 (6%), FD9 (6%): Total 19%
Keep in mind, percentages are rounded up or down as necessary, but they are as accurate a representation of the FAC deck as possible. Just keep in mind, like you I am only human, and in the scope of over 1500 different results on cards, I may have missed one or two. So, on to the conversion. You will need five dice, two six-sided (2d6), two eight-sided (2d8), and one twenty sided die (1d20). These five dice will perform all of the functions of the original FAC deck.
PB Number Dice (2d6): This is easy, use two six-sided (2d6), one colored and one white to obtain a random number (2 - 12), just like the original FAC deck. If the number falls within the pitchers PB range, the result comes from their card. If not it comes from the batter’s card.
FAC 2 – 5: 28.8%, 2d6 2 – 5 = 27.8%
FAC 2 – 6: 42.3%, 2d6 2 – 6 = 41.6%
FAC 2 – 7: 59.3%, 2d6 2 – 7 = 58.3%
FAC 2 – 8: 72.8%, 2d6 2 – 8 = 72.1%
FAC 2 – 9: 83.6%, 2d6 2 – 9 = 83.6%
As you can see the 2d6 used to obtain the PB number is pretty spot on with at worst a 1% variation, most notable in pitchers with a 2-5, and 2 - 6 control range.
Play Results Dice (2d8): This is easy as well, use two eight-sided (2d8) to obtain a random number (11 - 88), just like the original FAC deck. One of the 1d8 has to be a different color to be able to differentiate the two dice. I use one colored dice and one white dice. This is important as the colored dice represents the ‘10’s’ while the white 1d8 represents the ‘1’s’, allowing you to roll any number for 11 - 88.
Speciality Die (1d20): This die determines whether the batter hits a ground out of a fly out. It also determines any unusual plays, clutch defense and batting plays, errors and or injuries. Like the 2d8, the twenty-sided die is a carry over from D&D, and it performs several important tasks as mentioned previously. Possible Speciality Die Results: ‘1 - 10’ Ground out (50%), ‘11 - 19’ Fly out (45%), and ‘20’: Speciality Play (5%)
When you look at the out distribution of the FAC, ground outs are 52%, and fly outs 48%, a difference of 4%. The 1d20 result gives you ground out percentage of 50%, and fly outs 45%, a difference of 5%, using the 1d20 to determine the type of out result (ground or fly). In the original FAC deck, a speciality play (Z-Play, Clutch Defense, Clutch batting) result appears about 3% of the time. Using dice however, the possible chance of a speciality play result increases to 5%.
So how does the specialty die work? When you roll the five dice (2d6, 2d8, 1d20), you first look to see if the number of the 1d20 is a ‘20’. If the result is anything other than a twenty you continue game play as normal, with numbers ‘1 - 19’ indicating the type of out (1 - 10 ground out, 11 - 19 fly out).
Ground out percentage: FAC 52%, 1d20 (1 - 10 result) 50%.
Fly out percentage: FAC 48%, 1d20 (11 - 19 result) 45%.
Speciality Play (DB, CD, Z-Play): FAC 3%, 1d20 5%.
Speciality Plays
What happens when the 1d20 result is a ‘20’? Well, then we have to see what kind of speciality play may have occurred. In the original Statis Pro FAC deck, there are three types of speciality plays: Clutch Batting (BD), Clutch Defense (CD), and Unusual Plays (Z-Plays). Therefore, any time a FAC card is flipped there is a 3% chance that one of these plays will occur. When a speciality play is called for in the FAC, Clutch Batting (BD) occurs 43.5% of the time, Clutch Defense (CD) 46.1%, and a Z-Play only 10.2% of the time.
As mentioned previously, the use of the 1d20 increases the chance that a speciality play will happen by 2%, which for the convenience of rolling dice is a price I think is worth paying. Having said that, we can get real close to the original breakdown of how and where the specialty plays occur.
2d8 Result
11 - 44: Clutch Batting (FAC Result: 43.5%, 2d8 Result: 44%)
45 - 81: Clutch Defense (FAC Result: 46.1%, 2d8 Result: 45%)
82 - 88: Z-Play (FAC Result: 10.2%, 2d8 Result: 9%)
Now, getting the exact percentage as the FAC deck is not always possible due to the nature of the base-8 system, however, there is only 1% difference between the BD and CD results, and Z-plays will have a 1% less chance of happening using dice.
Balks, Wild Pitches, and Passed Balls
When a balk, wild pitch, and passed ball appears on the pitcher card, the rules have you flip a new card and look at the ‘pitch’ result to determine if there is a ‘yes’ or ‘no’. Obviously a yes result would indicate that the play occurred, while a no would indicate that it does not. Looking at the original FAC deck we see that a ‘yes’ occurs 47% of the time and a ‘no’ result 53% of the time.
FAC Deck Result - Pitch: Yes Results (47%), No results (53%)
Error Resolution
Now we need to add in the ability to represent errors into the game, and this is where the math in the Statis Pro FAC deck gets bogged down. Their three step process for determining errors is way more complicated than it needs to be, but we are going to look at it anyway as we are deconstructing the FAC deck to make it compatible for dice play. Before I delve into this confusing jumble of error percentages, I have included the raw numbers below for your analysis should you want to look at them.
Error Numbers per the FAC Deck:
Total number of outs with asterisks: 844 (Indicates possible error), (844/1558 = 54.1%)
Total number of ground outs with asterisks: 764 (764/844 = 90.5%)
Total number of flyouts (Line drive, Infield, and Outfield) with asterisks: 80 (80/844 = 9.4%)
Error Result: None (336/389 = 86.4%). Error Result with # (53/389 = 13.6%)
Every out result on the cards in the FAC deck may include an asterisk (*) next to the result. When this asterisk appears, it means that there may be a potential error on the play. Overall, the number of out results with an asterisk appearing are (54.1%). This means that if you took all of the out results to be equal then anytime there was an out result with an asterisk (*) there would be a (54.1%) chance that an out would occur.
However, when we look closer at all the FAC deck out results, we see that ground outs have a much higher chance of producing a possible error result (90.5%) when compared to fly out results (9.4%). This definitely makes sense as ground balls are harder to field than fly balls. So what we have at step one is the out result (L1*, GX6*, FD7*, etc…) which tells us the fielder involved in the play and that there is a possible out result.
Ground Outs (G1 - G6, G1A - G6A, GX1 - GX6): 90.5% chance of a possible error.
Fly Outs (L1 - L6, F1 - F6, F7 - F9, FD7 - FD9): 9.4% chance of a possible error.
Step two in the process is to flip a card in the FAC deck and look at the place on the card labeled ‘Error:’. There are two two options here, ‘none’ or a single number or number range ‘1 - 10’ indicating an error number. Now if the result is ‘none’ the error result is ignored, and no error occurs and play resumes as normal. If the result of the ‘Error:’ is a number or number range, you look at the position of the fielder that was involved in out play (L1*, GX6*, FD7*, etc…). If his error rating falls within the number range an error has occurred. If the fielders error rating does not fall within the number listed on the error range, then no out has occurred.
So, even if the ground out or fly out result of the play indicates that there is a potential error on the play, 86.4% of the time the FAC deck card flipped will give you a ‘none’ result. Only 13.6% of the cards list a single error number or error number range.
Error Result: None (86.4%).
Error Result with a single number or number range (13.6%)
Step Three in the process is to determine the type of error (1 - 5) that has occurred, when the result of the play actually indicates that there has been an error. This is done by flipping another card in the FAC deck and looking at the area labeled ‘Error on Infielder / Outfielder’. This label on the card will list an error number ‘Error: 1, Error: 2, Error 3, etc…). Once you know the error number you look up the result on the Statis Pro out charts (A, B, or C) to get the final result of the play. Whew…. So what is the actual percentage chance of an error happening on an out play? Let’s look at the numbers:
Ground Out: 90.5% becomes 12.3% (90.5 x .136 = 12.3%). So before even looking at the error number range and consulting the fielder rating, there is only a 12.3% chance that a ground out play could result in an error.
Fly Out: 9.4% becomes (9.4 x .136 = 1.5%). So before even looking at the error number range and consulting the fielder rating, there is only a 1.5% chance that a fly out play could result in an error.
So, overall if we combine both of these results together there is a 13.8% (12.3 + 1.5 = 13.8) of an error happening on any ground or fly out result play. And that’s before even looking at the fielder’s error rating which affects the percentage up or down even more.
So how do you recreate this in a dice based system? Each time there is an out result you could roll 2d8 and use the chart below.
Ground Out (2d8): ‘11 - 18’ (13% chance) a possible error occurs, ‘21 - 88’ no error on the play.
Fly Out (2d8): ‘11’ (2% chance) a possible error occurs, ‘12 - 88’ no error on the play.
The incorporation of the fielders error rating requires us to add an additional die into the mix, in the form of a 1d10, which would give you a random number ‘1 - 10’ and if that number was less than or equal to the fielders error rating then the error would occur. But wait, there’s more. So what happens if an error does occur, and how do you determine the type of error that occurred on the play? As there are five types of errors listed on the original Statis Pro out charts, simply roll 1d6 with the result of the 1d6 determining the error type (1= Error: 1, 2 = Error: 2, 3 = Error: 3, 4 = Error: 4, 5 or 6 = Error: 5). So in this instance you could be rolling four dice (2d8, 1d10, and 1d6) each time an out occurred to determine if an error occurred.
2d8: Gives you the random percentage chance that a possible error might occur.
1d10: Gives you a random error number from ‘1 - 10’, if the number is equal to or less than the fielders error rating, then an error occurs.
1d6: Gives you the error type that occurred (Error: 1 - 5) if there is an error.
This method does simulate the results of the FAC deck most accurately, and it only requires you to add one additional die to your dice pool. Keep in mind that everytime a single (1B7, 1B8, or 1B9) double (2B7, 2B8 or 2B9), or triple (3B9) is obtained off the batter’s card you would need to also check to see if the outfielder committed a fielding error (which doubles the chance that the outfielder commits an error to about 4% on any given play).
I admit, I have no clue as to the accuracy of the way that Statis Pro handles errors. The original FAC deck system may be totally legit, but I never liked having to check for outs on results from the batter’s card that had already indicated a safe base hit. This always seemed like a step that was unnecessary and could have been avoided. Therefore, when I play the game I do not check for errors on singles (1BF, 1B7, 1B8, or 1B9), doubles (2B7, 2B8, or 2B9), or triples (3B9). You can choose to do so when you play the game, but I think this is unnecessary.
Major League Error Results
FYI, on average, since Major League Baseball (MLB) started recording errors, errors have steadily decreased, this is of course due to several factors, better playing fields, better equipment, and better players at skilled positions. Error rates from the 1890’s were as high as 10%, however, since 1950, the average percentage of errors committed by all fielders who touched the ball is about 2.3 - 3.0%. For reference, here are percentages per decade: 1950 - 59: 3.00%, 1960 - 69: 2.99%, 1970 - 79: 3.07%, 1980 - 89: 2.79%, 1990 - 99: 2.54%, 2000 - 09: 2.34%.
Ground and Fly Out Charts
The following percentages of the various ground out and fly results were compiled from the raw data obtained from the original Statis Pro FAC deck. Once the raw data had been collected and the percentages adjusted (rounded up or down), it was time to place them into some form of easy to use, but accurate outs chart.
FAC Deck Ground Outs Per Position
G1 (7%), G1A (3%), GX1 (6%): Total 16%
G2 (1%), G2A (1%), GX2 (1%): Total 3%
G3 (9%), G3A (3%), GX3 (2%): Total 14%
G4 (9%), G4A (7%), GX4 (5%): Total 21%
G5 (12%), G5A (2%), GX5 (1%): Total 15%
G6 (16%), G6A (7%), GX6 (8%): Total 31%
FAC Deck Fly Outs Per Type and Position
L1 (5%), L3 (3%), L4 (3%), L5 (7%), L6 (3%): Total 21%
F1 (1%), F2 (10%), F3 (6%), F4 (5%), F5 (8%), F6 (6%): Total 36%
F7 (7%), F8 (7%), F9 (10%): Total 24%
FD7 (7%), FD8 (6%), FD9 (6%): Total 19%
Now, getting the exact percentage as represented by the FAC deck when using the base-8 number system is not always the easiest process, and sometimes the numbers will be off by 1 - 2%, but this is unavoidable. Having said that, the fact that each time the dice are rolled you get a true random number that was never possible using the FAC deck is a benefit. To make this process as accurate as possible, I came to the realization that two specific out charts would be needed. One for ground outs and one for fly outs.
These percentages were then converted to the base-8 system and compiled into the two specific out charts listed below.
There is one result that you may or may not have noticed has been eliminated from the out chart and that is the ‘G3-1A’, that had a less than 1% chance to occur any time a ground out occurred in the FAC deck. What I did was count these ‘8’ entries from the FAC deck as a ‘G3A’ result.
To Wrap It Up
I have almost completed my in depth set of instructions and rules instruction set that allow you to play Statis Pro baseball completely and accurately with dice. Giving you the same possible game results or as close to as possible without using the FAC. I hope to have these rules and necessary charts available for download for free within the next 10 - 14 days. Share this post if you like with your friends that may like looking at how the Statis Pro deck was designed and how it affects game play.
Todd
References
Stark, Mason, “MLB Errors and Their Frequency Trend” SB Nation, Pinstripe Alley, Aug. 16, 2013, https://www.pinstripealley.com/2013/8/16/4623050/mlb-errors-trends-statistics
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