Are Statis Pro Baseball's Base Stealing Charts Broken?
Are Statis Pro Base Stealing Charts Accurate?
Over the years, I have heard many people inquire about the accuracy of the original SP base stealing charts. My personal opinion is that for the most part they are a good representation of the game. They are however, somewhat bare bones, which leads to fast game play, but miserably fails when it comes to taking into account the defensive players roll in the stolen base attempt.
So let’s look at how the charts impact a fast or smart base stealer (SP: A) versus the slower or less savvy base stealer (SP: D or E). I think you may be surprised at the results.
SP: A (Versus Catcher TA)
Safe: 48% of the time.
Thrown Out: 20% of the time.
Advances on Error: 9% of the time.
Cannot Get Jump: 20% of the time.
So if you give an SP: A runner the signal to steal 2nd, he will attempt the steal approximately 80% of the time. If he does attempt to steal, there are only three outcomes. He is safe (48%), he is thrown out (20%), or he advances on an error (9%). If however, if you subtract the ‘Cannot get the Jump’ result from the equation and assume for a minute that the runner will automatically try to steal the base, then he would successfully steal 62% of the time, get caught 26% of the time, and reach 2nd on an error 12% of the time. Which means he has an overall 74% chance of successfully making it to 2nd base versus a TA catcher.
SP: D or E (Versus Catcher TA)
Safe: 8% of the time.
Thrown Out: 20% of the time.
Advances on Error: 9% of the time.
Holds: 40% of the time.
Cannot Get Jump: 22% of the time.
So if you give an SP: D or E runner the signal to steal 2nd, he will attempt the steal approximately 38% of the time. If he does attempt to steal, there are only three outcomes. He is safe (8%), he is thrown out (20%), or he advances on an error (9%). Here things change slightly as SP: B, C, D and E runners in the game have a ‘Hold’ result. As with the SP: A runner, if you subtract the ‘Cannot get the Jump’ and ‘Hold’ results from the equation and assume for a minute that the runner would automatically try to steal the base, then he would successfully steal 22% of the time, get caught 54% of the time, and reach 2nd on an error 24% of the time. Meaning he has an overall 46% chance of successfully making it to 2nd base versus a TA catcher.
SP: A (Versus Catcher TC)
Safe: 59% of the time.
Thrown Out: 9% of the time.
Advances on Error: 9% of the time.
Cannot Get Jump: 20% of the time.
So if you give an SP: A runner the signal to steal 2nd, he will attempt the steal approximately 80% of the time. If he does attempt to steal, there are only three outcomes. He is safe (59%), he is thrown out (9%), or he advances on an error (9%). However, if you subtract the ‘Cannot get the Jump’ result from the equation and assume for a minute that the runner will automatically try to steal the base, then he would successfully steal 77% of the time, get caught 12% of the time, and reach 2nd on an error 12% of the time. Which means he has an overall 89% chance of successfully making it to 2nd base versus a TC catcher.
SP: D or E (Versus Catcher TC)
Safe: 17% of the time.
Thrown Out: 11% of the time.
Advances on Error: 9% of the time.
Holds: 40% of the time.
Cannot Get Jump: 22% of the time.
So if you give an SP: D or E runner the signal to steal 2nd, he will attempt the steal approximately 40% of the time. If he does attempt to steal, there are only three outcomes. He is safe (17%), he is thrown out (11%), or he advances on an error (9%). As mentioned previously, if you subtract the ‘Cannot get the Jump’ and ‘Hold’ results from the equation and assume for a minute that the runner would automatically try to steal the base, then he would successfully steal 46% of the time, get caught 30% of the time, and reach 2nd on an error 24% of the time. Meaning he has an overall 70% chance of successfully making it to 2nd base versus a TC rated catcher.
What Does It All Mean?
We see that when facing a throwing arm ‘A’ rated catcher (TA), slower runners in the game are less likely to attempt the steal than faster runners (SP: A, 80% steal attempt vs SP: D or E, 38% steal attempt) which makes perfect sense. However, a slower runner does benefit from the fact that all runners can reach 2nd base successfully 9% of the time on an error regardless of their SP rating. This factor in the case of the SP: D or E runner actually more than doubles their chance of success (increases it by 53%) versus a catcher with a throwing arm rating of ‘A’ (TA), but has a less but still significant impact against the worst catchers TC (increases it about 34%).
So, if we remove the ‘Hold’ and ‘Cannot Get The Jump’ results from the chart, we get the following results. Which has led some people to wonder why do SP: D or E runners have an overall success rate of only 14% less than the fastest runners in the game when facing TA rated catchers? Well, statistically they do not, because we know ‘Hold’ and ‘Cannot Get The Jump’ results mean that there is only a 38% chance that an SP: D or E runner will even attempt to steal. Whereas an SP: A runner will attempt to steal 80% of the time.
SP: A Vs Catcher TA (‘Hold’ and ‘Cannot Get The Jump’ results Omitted)
Safe: 62%, Caught Stealing: 26%, Safe On Error: 12%, Success Rate: 80%
SP: D or E Vs Catcher TA (‘Hold’ and ‘Cannot Get The Jump’ results Omitted)
Safe: 22%, Caught Stealing: 54%, Safe On Error: 24%, Success Rate: 66%
Even if the runners did automatically attempt the steal, the SP: D or E runner is still thrown out 54% of the time versus the SP: A runner who is thrown out only 26% of the time. Even when facing the catchers with the worst throwing arms (TC), SP: D or E runners are thrown out 30% of the time when they attempt to steal versus SP: A runners who are only thrown out 12% of the time.
SP: A Vs Catcher TC (‘Hold’ and ‘Cannot Get The Jump’ results Omitted)
Safe: 77%, Caught Stealing: 12%, Safe On Error: 12%, Success Rate: 89%
SP: D or E Vs Catcher TC (‘Hold’ and ‘Cannot Get The Jump’ results Omitted)
Safe: 46%, Caught Stealing: 30%, Safe On Error: 24%, Success Rate: 70%
The biggest variable in the original Statis Pro base stealing charts is the static ‘Error’ result. These static error results favor slower runners and have a bigger impact on their success rate when the ‘Hold’ and ‘Cannot Get The Jump’ results are removed from the equation for analysis (24% success vs 12%).
The Bottom Line
Overall, when you look at the actual statistics of whether a runner is thrown out stealing, advances on errors, or steals the base outright, the ‘Stolen Base’ charts appear to be pretty accurate. The wording on the charts leaves some doubt as to their original intent, and why they decided to have two different results in which the runner fails to take action (‘Hold’, and ‘Cannot Get the Jump’) is a mystery.
The Charts can however be better and reflect a more statistically accurate way of simulating game play. If you are going for the full simulation, then SP: E runners should never be allowed to attempt to steal a base unless it is the result of an ‘Unusual Play’ (Z-Play). However, where the fun in that? The better or easier alternative is to roll a six-sided dice (1d6).
If you are using the original Statis Pro stolen base charts, a simple and easy way to reduce the impact of static errors on SP: D and E rated runners is to roll a 1d6, on a 1 - 3 the runner is safe on the error, a 4 - 6 and the runner is thrown out. This small trick will help to minimize the impact of error results when dealing with slower runners.
My Base Stealing Charts and Dealing with ‘D’ & ‘E’ Runners
One of the things I have done for years is make small modifications to the original SP charts to enhance the game play. To take the actual player ratings into the evaluation process. Now, Status Pro did this to some degree by using the speed rating (SP) of the base runner, but they stopped there. My modifications are defensive in nature and are based on the fielders CD and Error ratings. For Example Sealing 2nd Base:
The Original Statis Pro Chart Reading:
62 Wild throw by catcher. Stolen base and runner to third.
63 Wild throw by catcher. Stolen base and runner scores.
My Statis Pro Out Chart Reading:
62 - 63 Catcher (E0 - E4) runner picked off at 2nd. Catcher (E5 - E10) wild throw (Error),
SP: A+, or A runner scores, B or C runner to 3rd base, D or E runner safe at 2nd. No
credit given for the steal.
The dice roll, or FAC card number used when attempting a steal is unchanged, however, my charts emphasize the fielder involved in the play defensive capability. Therefore, better defensive players make fewer errors which to me makes logical sense. In this instance, both the offensive and defensive ratings of the player involved in the play are taken into account.
Other than having the players actual performance and capabilities impact the outcome of the steal attempt, there is a second benefit to using my chart. That benefit is regulating or reducing the unbalanced impact errors have on slower rated players.
How I handle SP: D & E runners using my charts is simple. If a steal attempt results in an error, and the runner involved is D or E rated, I roll 1d6, on a 1 - 3 the error occurs, and the runner is safe, however if the result is 4 - 6, there is no error and the runner is thrown out stealing.
I have added the link for my Statis Pro 1st & 3rd edition compatible stolen base game charts for everyone to use if they wish. From a game development aspect, the charts are true to the originals. The only small modifications I have made are adding the fielder ratings to the play results. Now, get out there and "PLAY BALL!"
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